3 Reasons Google Wave Won’t Flop
August 13, 2009 by Evan Kline 
13 Comments
Several weeks ago, I questioned whether tech geeks were out of touch with the rest of the world. From having no "real world" friends with Twitter accounts, to having family members who could care less about the tech over which I get excited, I pondered whether we tech geeks lived in a different reality. One example of the type of tech that only tech geeks might love is Google Wave. Wave is Google’s next generation e-mail/instant messaging/collaboration/social media tool. As the Google Operating System blog explains, a "wave is equal parts conversation and document, where people can communicate and work together with richly formatted text, photos, videos, maps, and more." For a thorough explanation of Wave, check out Mashable’s Complete Guide to Google Wave. But is Wave something only a tech geek could love?
Photo by jmayer1129. Google has not released Wave to the public yet, so the answer to this question is open to some speculation. But based upon the information that HAS been released, I don’t think Wave will be limited to just us tech geeks. I see three groups of people that will use Wave:
1. The tech savvy
I don’t need to expand upon this. You can admit it – Google Wave will be new and shiny, and you’re already looking forward to trying it out and using it, if you haven’t been fortunate enough to sample it yet.
2. Businesses that rely upon collaboration
Perhaps businesses won’t flock to it immediately, but the lure of Wave will be hard to resist. Need to collaborate on that document or mark up that proposal? Do it in real time with Wave. Since Wave will be Open Source, network admins need not worry about sharing confidential information outside of a network. Businesses can run Wave on their own servers, without transmitting any information to Google.
3. Social users
With so many types of information able to be shared on Wave, it is hard to see Wave not being used as a social media tool. Think of how we’ve moved from e-mail, to instant messaging, to texting, to Twittering. It’s not hard to imagine social users gravitating towards Wave as the "next big thing." If I were the CEO of one of the currently popular social media sites, I’d be casting a wary eye towards Wave. Google Wave might not gain massive acceptance and use initially, but over time it is hard to imagine it being limited to just a niche audience, given that it has the power of Google behind it. If it does gain widespread acceptance, I think that these three user bases will lead the way. How about you? Can you think of other types of users that will embrace Wave? Or am I wrong, and Wave will be used only by us Tech geeks?
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I have no clue what I’m supposed to do with Google Wave but I’m sooo going to try it out, just because it’s new and shiny :)
But there’s no way it will *ever* replace my Snow Leopard (when Snow Leopard is released, that is)… I don’t hope so, I like my Mac too much to have it replaced by a browser-based operating system.
I like cloud-based stuff, but I don’t want my OS up there… yet!
Google is more powerful in the world of Internet.
It can create anything in the world.
But war is on between Bing and Google.
@Klaus- Are you thinking of Chrome OS perhaps? That is the upcoming Google OS, while Wave is the email/chat/sharing tool that Google is working on.
@Surender – I agree- the fact that this has Google behind it already gives it a head start.
I was thinking of Wave, actually… but I might have misunderstood it a bit, thinking that the idea was to have your operating system in the cloud, only being dependant on a browser in order to access it :)
Yea, I guess it remains to be seen exactly how Wave will work, but my understanding is it will be sort of a combination e-mail/instant messaging/collaboration/file sharing app, on steroids. I think Google will host it, but it is Open Source, so end users can host it on their own server, too.
You said: we’ve moved from e-mail, to instant messaging, to texting, to Twittering.
The difference with Wave is that it is not just a new tool to communicate, but a way to solve some of the problems with our existing communication tools and methods. That’s why I think it stands a chance of success.
In the social arena, it’s interesting to speculate on the future of SMS texts – will they stay outside the Wave? As 3G becomes more widespread will Twitter (or similar) replace SMS?
I sure hope that something replaces SMS, Frank. With prices the equivalent of $1500 per MB of data for SMS, the carriers deserve to have that revenue stream blow up in their faces. Perhaps another Google product – Google Voice – is an indicator of alternatives to come.
You know what? “Google Wave is a personal communication and collaboration tool announced by Google.”…. What do you mean with that? Google is going with head ache definitions and PM’s videos. They just have to explain clearly what’s the use of Wave is to average people.
I agree, Shahzad. I think that’s why Wave hasn’t caught on yet. The average person either doesn’t understand it, or doesn’t see a use for it.
Hey Ivan, Google Wave is going to shut down this year. So I think this post is almost invalid
Thanks Shahzad. Yep, this post was a bit off, huh? My crystal ball last year didn’t anticipate Google pulling the plug on Wave after it was open to the public for only 78 days.
You might be interested in a series we just started, where we look for a Google Wave replacement:
http://www.40tech.com/2010/08/10/the-hunt-for-a-google-wave-alternative-part-i-shareflow/