The Impending Death of Apple’s App Store?
10. Jan, 2010 
9 Comments
Apple’s App Store has been a smashing success. Last week, Apple announced that more than three billion apps had been downloaded from the App Store since its inception 18 months ago. It’s almost hard to imagine the time when there were no third-party apps. But have Apples’ actions, coupled with web technologies, threatened the future of the App Store?
Apple’s missteps with the App Store have been well-publicized, from the pulling of all apps that supported Google Voice, to the seemingly random approval and rejection of some apps. Naturally, certain app developers became disgruntled over events like these. Can you blame them? Would you want to invest significant time and money to develop an app, and not know if you’d ever be able to sell it? Developers now have other options.
HTML 5 is what could change all of this. The simple explanation of HTML 5 is that it is an improvement in HTML, the predominant language used to develop web pages. It will allow developers to make pages more full-featured without the need for plugins like Flash, Java, or Silverlight. The iPhone already supports some HTML 5 features, and, as a result, some developers see an opportunity to use HTML 5 to make an end run around the App Store.
One such example of this is Voice Central, which was one of the Google Voice apps that Apple pulled from the App Store. The developers are currently in a closed beta of the "Black Swan Edition" of Voice Central, which would be a web-app version. If their web site is to be believed, then the Black Swan Edition will work "just like a native iPhone application." If this is the case, and other developers follow suit, the app landscape could change.
If you were a developer, which path would you take – stick with the App Store, or develop a web app instead? There are pros and cons of each. Going it alone would allow you to produce your app with less hassle, quicker updates, and a larger cut of any sales. On the flip side, independently released apps almost certainly will get less publicity, and, as a result, fewer sales. In addition, some users simply may prefer native apps.
Regardless of what happens, times are changing, and I welcome the changes. If nothing else, it will give users more choice.
What do you think of these changes? What path would you take as a developer?
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It will be a few years at least before web apps catch up to native apps. HTML 5 is still in its infancy and not supported to any great extent on most browsers. Nevertheless, web apps will eventually surpass native apps for the reasons given in this article. As for comment that web apps “will get less publicity”, that is not true at all. In fact, most apps in the Apple App Store already have little publicity. Any company that develops any good product and uses a lot more marketing techniques other than relying exclusively upon Apple’s App Store will get publicity. The biggest benefit for developers however is that instead of forking over 30% of their revenue to Apple, they will be able to keep a larger percentage.
One thing that I have also noticed is that most people tend to think that because you have a web app, you can’t market it in a store. That is nonsense. In fact, my company is currently building a true “app store” where apps can be native or web apps. The store doesn’t treat your apps any differently just because its hosted on a website. You still need a portal where users can go, browse, compare and rate apps, regardless how they are built.
To keep up on app store information, follow my postings on Twitter at http://twitter.com/AppStoreInfo
I think you’re right with the tech crowd, but I have non-tech friends who only know the App Store. If they don’t find something there, then they’ll never find it. I guess it will be interesting to see stats in the future after there are more purchasable web apps, to see how they do.
Thanks for the link- my wife was just on a computer yesterday without iTunes, and was asking me where she could find info on apps.
The fact is that most iphone developers 2 years ago, prior to app store launch, were web developers or in some sort of development. I think developers who have had success will continue to push forward and create apps for the App Store, not go back to web.
That is probably the answer. Developers who have success in the App Store will stick with it, while developers who run into trouble with the App Store will go the web app route. If they day ever comes where Apps can make it big outside the App Store, and if HTML 5 or its successor give developers the tools they need, that might change.
I don’t see how a web app could take advantage of all the built-in stuff in the iPhone, like address book, GPS, compass, camera etc. But of course there are apps that might as well be a web app only – since it will any way require internet connection to work.
Not sure where we’re going but everybody is having – or launching – an app store, nowadays.
Klaus @ TechPatio´s last blog ..Linux, Windows & Mac – As Seen By Fanboys
I assume you’re right, but don’t know enough about web app development to know what can and can’t be done with a web app. I’ll be curious to see how the Voice Central app works (i.e. will it take advantage of the phone, or just place calls to the phone to initiate a call?).
I suspect that the Google voice app rejection had to do with the agreement with AT&T’s cell service commitment. I think that deal was a big mistake on Apple’s part. Not that having the phone subsidized was, but AT&T was a very poor choice. That alone has lost them a lot of sales. For sure, it would have cost them mine if I lived in the USA.
Apple and AT&T both denied that AT&T had anything to do with it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if AT&T did have its hand in there somewhere. My iPhone is a work phone, so AT&T was my only choice since that is who my company uses (which made the iPhone a no-brainer). Back when I got the phone a year or so ago, I probably would have made the same choice even if I could have had my pick of carriers,as the options aren’t what they are now. Today, if I had to pick, I would take a hard look at an Android phone.